While you all anxiously await a Trenton Devils goalie tree that features such luminaries as Nicolas Lareau (no, I’m not actually going to break another one of those out for a little while), I figured what better time than 2:45 AM to look at the ECHL’s American Conference standings…
1 – South Carolina, 73 points (16 games left)
2 – Cincinnati, 70 points (19 games left)
3 – Elmira, 59 points (22 games left)
4 – Charlotte, 60 points (22 games left)
5 – Florida, 60 points (18 games left)
6 – Kalamazoo, 59 points (23 games left)
7 – Toledo, 59 points (20 games left)
8 – Wheeling, 56 points (19 games left)
9 – Gwinnett, 55 points (21 games left)
10 – Reading, 54 points (22 games left)
11 – Trenton, 47 points (21 games left)
12 – Johnstown, 36 points (21 games left)
Can Trenton make the playoffs? At first glance, sure. It seems very doable, as they’re nine points back of Wheeling with two games in hand. However, to put it into perspective, they’re only three points further away from getting the three seed, of all things, than they are the eighth…they’re 12 points back of division leading Elmira.
Say Wheeling gets half of their possible points over the last 19 games…that would, of course, be 19 more points, giving them 75. Not an unrealistic assumption, yes? Trenton would then need 29 points out of a possible 42, which would give them 76 for the season.
So let’s say — and there’s obviously a variety of ways they could get there — that they’d need to go 14-6-1 to make the playoffs. Does anyone honestly think they can do this? There’s no sarcasm there…do you honestly think the 2009-10 Trenton Devils can win two out of every three games for the last 21 games they have to play?
Eight of those 21 games come against the three other teams also currently out of the playoffs.
Ten of those 21 games are at home.
Long story short…if Trenton has any hopes of making the playoffs, their magical run needs to start right now. Based on my math, they have a possible 13 points they can give away out of 42. Friday and Saturday, against the worst team in the entire league, is not the time to spend those points.
Mike Ashmore, mashmore98 AT gmail.com